How Meat Taxes Shift Protein Choices: A Simulated Supermarket Experiment

Motivation. Supermarkets play a central role in shaping food choices and have growing influence on sustainability outcomes. Pricing instruments such as meat taxes are increasingly debated as policy tools to shift consumer diets toward more sustainable protein sources. Yet little is known about how consumers adjust their purchases when faced with such price signals across a full range of protein options.

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What we do. We use a digital, simulated supermarket to conduct a basket-based choice experiment in which participants build multi-item baskets across animal and plant-based protein categories. This design captures substitution both within and across categories, allowing us to estimate demand responses to price changes under conditions that mirror real shopping. Findings provide policy-relevant evidence on how market structure and pricing tools can influence consumer diets and advance sustainability goals.